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Back to papersAbstract Summary Main Finding Notes Great Recession analysis
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
[Claude classification]: Paper studies routine-biased technological change (RBTC) accelerated by the Great Recession. Uses Bartik shift-share instrument based on pre-recession industry composition interacted with national industry employment changes 2006-2009. Finds upskilling persistent through 2015 even as labor markets converged. Routine-cognitive occupations experience upskilling and wage growth; routine-manual occupations experience employment losses. Within-firm upskilling accounts for roughly half of total effect, with firm entry/exit accounting for remainder.
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change?
Hershbein, Kahn
2016NBER Working Paper27 citations
Observational labor marketCausal
Automation / RobotsAI (General)Routine task changeAugmentation vs. substitutionJunior / entry-level
We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas. These increases persist through at least the end of 2015 and are correlated with increases in capital investments, both at the MSA and firm-levels. We also find that effects are most pronounced in routine-cognitive occupations, which exhibit relative wage growth as well. We argue that this evidence is consistent with the restructuring of production toward routine-biased technologies and the more-skilled workers that complement them, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.
Hershbein and Kahn use job vacancy postings from Burning Glass Technologies (2007, 2010-2015) and a Bartik shock identification strategy to study how the Great Recession affected skill requirements in job ads across U.S. metropolitan areas.
MSAs more severely hit by the Great Recession experienced persistent 5 percentage point increases in education and experience requirements and 2-3 percentage point increases in cognitive and computer skill requirements, driven by within-firm upskilling and capital investment, concentrated in routine-cognitive occupations.
- Key Methods
- Difference-in-differences with Bartik shift-share instrument for local employment shocks, linking job postings to firm-level capital investment data
- Sample Period
- 2007-2015
- Geographic Coverage
- US
- Sample Size
- Nearly 100 million job postings; 381 MSAs; 170,809 firms
- Level of Analysis
- Firm, Occupation, Region
- Occupation Classification
- SOC 2010
- Industry Classification
- NAICS 2012
- Replication Package
- Yes