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Back to papersAbstract Summary Main Finding Notes NBER WP 32319; adoption 3.7% to 5.4% in 6 months
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
[Claude classification]: NBER Working Paper 32319; real-time tracking shows adoption grew from 3.7% to 5.4% over 6 months; employment-weighted rates higher than firm-weighted (9% vs 5.4% in Feb 2024); most common barrier is AI not applicable to business (80.9%); includes detailed supplement on AI types, applications, task substitution, and organizational changes
Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time
Bonney, Breaux, Buffington, Dinlersoz, Foster, Goldschlag, Haltiwanger, Kroff, Savage
2024NBER Working Paper Series29 citations
Adoption / usage
AI AdoptionAI (General)
Timely and accurate measurement of AI use by firms is both challenging and crucial for understanding the impacts of AI on the U.S. economy.We provide new, real-time estimates of current and expected future use of AI for business purposes based on the Business Trends and Outlook Survey for September 2023 to February 2024.During this period, bi-weekly estimates of AI use rate rose from 3.7% to 5.4%, with an expected rate of about 6.6% by early Fall 2024.The fraction of workers at businesses that use AI is higher, especially for large businesses and in the Information sector.AI use is higher in large firms but the relationship between AI use and firm size is non-monotonic.In contrast, AI use is higher in young firms although, on an employmentweighted basis, is U-shaped in firm age.Common uses of AI include marketing automation, virtual agents, and data/text analytics.AI users often utilize AI to substitute for worker tasks and equipment/software, but few report reductions in employment due to AI use.Many firms undergo organizational changes to accommodate AI, particularly by training staff, developing new workflows, and purchasing cloud services/storage.AI users also exhibit better overall performance and higher incidence of employment expansion compared to other businesses.The most common reason for non-adoption is the inapplicability of AI to the business.
Bonney et al. use the Census Bureau's bi-weekly Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) covering approximately 200,000 businesses per wave to track real-time AI adoption patterns and anticipated future use by U.S. firms from September 2023 to February 2024
AI use by U.S. firms rose from 3.7% in September 2023 to 5.4% in February 2024, with expected use of 6.6% by Fall 2024; use is highest in Information sector (18.1%) and largest firms (7.2%), follows U-shaped pattern by firm size, and shows minimal employment reduction despite task substitution
- Key Methods
- High-frequency bi-weekly survey of approximately 200,000 businesses per wave; weighted to be nationally representative by state, sector, and firm size; descriptive analysis with cross-tabulations by firm characteristics
- Sample Period
- September 2023-February 2024
- Geographic Coverage
- US
- Sample Size
- Approximately 164,500 businesses (pooled across 6 bi-weekly panels); average 16% response rate from sample of ~200,000 businesses per bi-weekly wave
- Level of Analysis
- Firm, Industry, Region
- Occupation Classification
- None
- Industry Classification
- NAICS