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The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Bick, Blandin, Deming

2024NBER Working Paper Series53 citations
Adoption / usageTheoretical model
LLM / Generative AIAI Adoption
View RepositoryDOI: 10.3386/w32966
Summary

Bick, Blandin, and Deming use nationally representative online surveys (Real-Time Population Survey, August and November 2024) to measure generative AI adoption rates, usage intensity, and time savings among US adults ages 18-64, comparing adoption patterns to historical PC and internet diffusion.

Main Finding

As of late 2024, 40% of US adults ages 18-64 use generative AI, with 23% of employed workers using it for work at least once in the previous week and 9% using it every workday; adoption has been as fast as PCs at work and faster than PCs/internet overall; users report time savings equivalent to 1.4% of total work hours, suggesting potential aggregate productivity gains of 1.1%

Primary Datasets

Real-Time Population Survey

AI-focused

Real-Time Population Survey

Secondary Datasets

CPS

Labor outcomes

Eloundou et al. (2023)

AI-focused

Current Population Survey (CPS) Computer and Internet Use Supplement 1984-2009; International Telecommunication Union (ITU) internet usage data 1995-2021; Eloundou et al. (2024) GenAI exposure scores

Key Methods
Nationally representative online survey (Real-Time Population Survey); descriptive statistics; comparison with historical CPS data on PC and internet adoption; aggregate production function model
Sample Period
2024
Geographic Coverage
US
Sample Size
10,343 respondents across August and November 2024 RPS waves; 4,698 in December 2024 SWAA wave
Level of Analysis
Individual, Occupation, Industry
Occupation Classification
Census occupation codes
Industry Classification
Census industry codes
Replication Package
Yes
Notes
NBER WP 32966; 40% of US adults use GenAI; 28% at work [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix. [Claude classification]: Revised February 2025. Survey validated against SWAA (different online panel) with similar results. Authors compare genAI adoption patterns to historical PC/internet adoption from CPS Computer and Internet Use supplement (1984-2009). Self-reported time savings used to estimate productivity gains. Replication package available at NBER data appendix.