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Back to papersAbstract Summary Main Finding Notes Robot exposure measure
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
[Claude classification]: This is a foundational paper on robot adoption and labor market impacts. Uses shift-share IV (Bartik instrument) with European robot adoption, not a natural experiment despite quasi-experimental variation. The paper includes a formal task-based theoretical model that is calibrated to interpret the reduced-form estimates and compute aggregate effects accounting for trade between commuting zones. The authors carefully distinguish local effects (commuting zone-level) from aggregate national effects using the model structure. Robustness checks exclude automobile industry, control for China/Mexico trade exposure, routine jobs, offshoring, and IT capital.
Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
Acemoglu, Restrepo
2017NBER Working Paper Series889 citations
Observational labor marketCausalTheoretical model
Automation / RobotsAugmentation vs. substitution
We study the effects of industrial robots on US labor markets. We showtheoretically that robots may reduce employment and wages and thattheir local impacts can be estimated using variation in exposure to ro-bots—defined from industry-level advances in robotics and local indus-try employment. We estimate robust negative effects of robots on em-ployment and wages across commuting zones. We also show that areasmost exposed to robots after 1990 do not exhibit any differential trendsbefore then, and robots’impact is distinct from other capital and tech-nologies. One more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio by 0.2 percentage points and wages by 0.42%.
Acemoglu and Restrepo use shift-share instrumental variables with European robot adoption data to estimate the causal effect of industrial robot penetration on US local labor market outcomes from 1990-2007, finding large negative effects on employment and wages concentrated in manufacturing and routine occupations.
One additional robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio by 0.18-0.37 percentage points (equivalent to 3-6.2 workers per robot) and wages by 0.25-0.73 percent, with effects concentrated in manufacturing, routine manual occupations, and workers with less than college education, and no offsetting employment gains in other sectors.
- Key Methods
- Shift-share instrumental variables approach using European robot adoption as instrument for US robot exposure; task-based model; local labor market analysis with commuting zones; long differences and stacked differences specifications
- Sample Period
- 1990-2007
- Geographic Coverage
- US
- Sample Size
- 722 commuting zones; 163,114 demographic cell x commuting zone observations for wage regressions; robot data covers 19 industries across 9 European countries plus US
- Level of Analysis
- Region, Industry, Occupation
- Occupation Classification
- Census
- Industry Classification
- SIC/NAICS
- Replication Package
- Yes